I'm sceptical to say the least. The vast majority of those people who wanted to support the game will already have done so. The remainder - those of us who hold a strong disdain for early access models, those who simply don't give a shit about Double Fine or adventure games, and the mainstream - are hardly likely to bite, unless they are somehow unaware that it is not the whole game.

At best, Double Fine can hope for the existing backers to buy it again on Steam in order to provide additional funding, but seeing as existing higher-tier backers already get Steam Early Access, they'd have to be very generous.

Yeah, if he's counting on a ton of people buying this outside of the target market I think he's making a big mistake. It's not like Double Fine's name means big sale numbers, as any publisher will tell you.

And the whole point of the Kickstarter was that point and click adventures have a relatively small audience but they can fund a relatively low budget game made just for them.

It's not just that he was hiding it, he actually claimed the opposite in this thread:

I may not be very good at English, but I believe that makes him a hypocrite.

I backed 1$ for this game because I like Double Fine very much but I don't know if I really want to buy this game...

Not that surprised, not that I really care. He's too much of a troll to bother thinking about. And to anyone else I replied to on this thread and accused of trollish behaviour, the fact that I replied means that I hold you in high enough esteem to think you're a reasonable person.
I think that the success of the early access programme depends on how good the game is. DF will be putting the game (a large part of it) in front of everyone, and it will get reviewed and commented on. There are a lot of people who didn't pledge or pay until now because they prefer to know what the game is like before paying, so there's still a potentially large market out there. If the game is good enough to get good reviews and satisfy adventure game fans, then I think DF has a chance to make enough money to finish it. It will then still be able to make a profit selling it on iOS (and Android, but that's usually a much smaller market), and from people who were still waiting for the complete game (or for a DRM-free copy, another smaller market).

So I don't think that all is lost, but at this point everything is speculation. I'll be looking forward to seeing how this turns out.

Of course you do. :)

Really, just wait and see how it turns out. Not everyone needs to pay up front for a game.

That's actually the only thing I disagree. It wouldn't be the worst case but rather the best case. If they would cut content now and finish the game they still could continue working on a sequel instead of relying on Steam Early Access or other unkown things.

I would see this as the far better option, but their message seems to indicate that they do not really consider a smaller scope as an option. I see this as a great risk and do not really trust their potential sources of finances.

Well, we have to wait to see how this unfolds.

And what about the "no Steam no buy" flock? I'd say there is a whole lot of them, so I think there is a chance that they will shove enough money down Schafer's throat.

All of the original Kickstarter tiers already had a Steam key included (including Early Access), and the $50 backer tier on the DF website also has a Steam key, so it's not like Steam users were going without.

And besides, I think you're overestimating the size of the "no Steam, no buy" crowd. Vocal as they may be, there are very few people that refuse to use anything but Steam, and fewer still who refuse to buy anywhere except Steam. Most Steam-only users also shop around and buy from Gamersgate, GMG, Humble Store etc.

How many games have made a million or two with Steam early access so far? I don't know but I guess not many. So I also guess the chance is there but rather very small. It might not be very likely and they rather do the wrong thing. But then I'm repeating myself and should just wait and see what happens.

They are cutting the scope of the game. That's part of the plan. What Tim Schafer said was that if they just cut the game without going to Early Access the cut will be too drastic and won't result in a game which feels complete, which is why they're making this move.

I have several things to say about this. First of all you're right in concept, "no Steam, no buy" simply means that the game must be activated on Steam, not that the game must be bought on Steam. Such people will buy on other stores or bundles, but only if they get a Steam key.

Secondly, regardless of what you think of people and where they buy, Steam is the largest digital store, and a lot of people buy existing games which have been available elsewhere when they appear on Steam. These sales tend to dominate the game's sales.

As I said before, many people are risk averse, and won't buy before there's an actual game. While this will only be half a game, it will probably be enough to convince many people who haven't been willing to play before even if they heard of the game, and it will draw in some people who haven't heard of the game before.

Developers are ignoring how abusing Early Access is going to damage the system's reputation, just look at any of the forums for the Early Access games, it's toxic. I'm not saying it's right but quite a lot of Steam's users see Early Access as nothing but sleazy cash-grabs.

Stuff like Planetary Annihilation putting up alpha at 80$ and then planning to lower it closer to release, or Double Fine's plans to use it to fund part 2 of Broken Age, it might SEEM useful now, but just wait until customers lose faith in Early Access games in general, it could damage their reputation and mean he will sell badly upon actual full release.

One could say then that the cutting is too little and too late, but this would be highly subjective. It seems that they have to rely on additional money because otherwise there is no way for them to make a game that feels complete. I would say this tells you that there have been made errors in the past, but let's just see how their plan works out..

Didn't notice that post of his - tbh, I stopped reading his posts after he replied to me that he likes arguements for the sake of arguements and tried to suck me into one.

Anyway, things will take their course for DF, no matter what would make Crosmando happy or happier.