Posted July 07, 2014
Okay, first of all, the post after this one will be UNOFFICIAL RESULTS
I say this because I put all these into a simple text file (so as to be able to cut and paste it into here) with no calculator or formulas. In other words, I did all the math in my head, I typed the results in the order they were posted and therefore could've mistyped something, and it's possible I missed a post or two entirely.
In other words, the odds of there being errors are an almost certainty. The odds of the errors changing the outcome I hope are much smaller, but because those odds aren't zero, I'm going to post UNOFFICIAL RESULTS and give players and observers a chance to challenge my findings. As I said, I'd bet all my wealth I made errors, I just hope I didn't make any that changes the outcome.
THIS IS WHY I WAS ADAMANT ABOUT UNEDITED POSTS. Because even now, if a post becomes edited, it will BE WITHDRAWN. I'm going to post the results I got, and it's simply impossible for others to check my work if the posts become edited. There would be no way to know when they were edited (before or after I did my file) nor would there be any way to confirm what I'm posting. So if you want to win, DO NOT EDIT YOUR POSTS.
I don't know how long I will wait before making it official, either several hours to give players a chance to protest or until perhaps a good number of neutral observers weigh in and say they come to the same conclusion. But it will be today.
SOME INTERESTING STATS:
A grand total of 165 guesses were made, broken down as follows (it's easy to see the most popular two choices):
Jagged Alliance Collection - 71
Disciples III - Resurrection - 44
King Arthur: The Role Playing Wargame - 25
Ethan: Meteor Hunter - 13
A Game of Dwarves Gold - 12
NO ONE GUESSED ANY OF THEM EXACTLY.
In THREE of the five games, the winner was decided by ONE. That's right, ONE separated the winner from another guess.
In one of the others, the difference was only 6.
In the final one, the difference was very large (36) between the winner and the second closest guess.
The closest anyone got was the winner of King Arthur: The Role Playing Wargame, who missed the actual number by only 2.
The winners of A Game of Dwarves Gold and Jagged Alliance Collection were off the correct number by 3.
The winner of Disciples III: Resurrection was off the correct number by 4.
And the winner of Ethan: Meteor Hunter missed the mark by a whopping 29.
Arthur had 2 guesses within 10 of the correct number, Dwarves and Disciples had 3 guesses within 10 of the correct number, and Jagged Alliance Collection had 4 guesses within 10 of the correct number.
I will wait 10 minutes to post the file because it's large and I don't want it to merge.
I say this because I put all these into a simple text file (so as to be able to cut and paste it into here) with no calculator or formulas. In other words, I did all the math in my head, I typed the results in the order they were posted and therefore could've mistyped something, and it's possible I missed a post or two entirely.
In other words, the odds of there being errors are an almost certainty. The odds of the errors changing the outcome I hope are much smaller, but because those odds aren't zero, I'm going to post UNOFFICIAL RESULTS and give players and observers a chance to challenge my findings. As I said, I'd bet all my wealth I made errors, I just hope I didn't make any that changes the outcome.
THIS IS WHY I WAS ADAMANT ABOUT UNEDITED POSTS. Because even now, if a post becomes edited, it will BE WITHDRAWN. I'm going to post the results I got, and it's simply impossible for others to check my work if the posts become edited. There would be no way to know when they were edited (before or after I did my file) nor would there be any way to confirm what I'm posting. So if you want to win, DO NOT EDIT YOUR POSTS.
I don't know how long I will wait before making it official, either several hours to give players a chance to protest or until perhaps a good number of neutral observers weigh in and say they come to the same conclusion. But it will be today.
SOME INTERESTING STATS:
A grand total of 165 guesses were made, broken down as follows (it's easy to see the most popular two choices):
Jagged Alliance Collection - 71
Disciples III - Resurrection - 44
King Arthur: The Role Playing Wargame - 25
Ethan: Meteor Hunter - 13
A Game of Dwarves Gold - 12
NO ONE GUESSED ANY OF THEM EXACTLY.
In THREE of the five games, the winner was decided by ONE. That's right, ONE separated the winner from another guess.
In one of the others, the difference was only 6.
In the final one, the difference was very large (36) between the winner and the second closest guess.
The closest anyone got was the winner of King Arthur: The Role Playing Wargame, who missed the actual number by only 2.
The winners of A Game of Dwarves Gold and Jagged Alliance Collection were off the correct number by 3.
The winner of Disciples III: Resurrection was off the correct number by 4.
And the winner of Ethan: Meteor Hunter missed the mark by a whopping 29.
Arthur had 2 guesses within 10 of the correct number, Dwarves and Disciples had 3 guesses within 10 of the correct number, and Jagged Alliance Collection had 4 guesses within 10 of the correct number.
I will wait 10 minutes to post the file because it's large and I don't want it to merge.
Post edited July 07, 2014 by OldFatGuy
